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Have we hit bottom??? Buyer's Market has come to the NECK!!
Most of the people looking for real estate in the neck are within 10 years of retirement and the greatest percentage are within 5 years. The reservoir of buyers of properties like those in the neck is growing. BUT, the market is fluid here in the Neck. Below is last months update that I sent out to clients. Just send me an email at LonRCrow@yahoo.com if you desire to be put on the list. (please note that the links expire in 14 days)
BELOW IS AN UPDATE THAT I SEND MONTHLY, IF YOU DESIRE AN UPDATE, JUST SEND EMAIL TO LONRCROW@YAHOO.COM (please note the links are only good for 14 days after issuance)
Northern Neck Property Update Update October 2011 Lon Crow- Waterfront Property Specialist 804-580-1162 LonRCrow@yahoo.com www.LonCrow.com Ann Meekins Realtors, Irvington Va Northern Neck Update As always, this update contains the links to all of the waterfront/access properties currently available on the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula (see links at the bottom page). The links have links to additional photos, maps, etc. There is also my assessment of the market and my real estate musings. You are receiving this update if you filled in an info request form on my website, we met at a boat show or you were referred by a friend. If you desire to be taken off this update list, just reply to this email and I will delete you from future mailings. PLEASE NOTE THAT MY EMAIL WAS COMPROMISED LAST MONTH SO I DUMPED EVERYTHING IN MY INBOX. IF YOU REQUESTED DELETION FROM THE LIST IT COULD HAVE BEEN LOST SO PLEASE RESEND…SORRY Goings on Fall has arrived. Sure signs of fall are when the crickets chirp to deafening levels trying to get a little action before winter (if you know what I mean) and the chimnea is fired up to enjoy a little cider and gaze out over the water as the sun dips below the surface. After Irene, I have more than enough fuel for gazing (if you know what I mean). As usual the bird population heralds the change in seasons. The ospreys have turned south BUT not before enjoying one last meal on my mizzen mast before leaving (it would be nice if they ate the whole thing rather leaving the gills on the deck…uurrr). They are replaced by the neat cormorants that seem to leave the boat alone. The geese are congregating in large numbers and following the sunsets on their nightly migration to some place. The best thing about the Neck is the quiet. I went down to the pier at about 11 pm one night last month (I ran out of sleepy time tea L ) and just sat there. The only sounds were the jumping fish, infrequent heron cackles and squirrels eating their nuts (they must have ran out of sleepy time tea also). No other sounds were heard. As the fish jumped you can hear their scales slapping together. There was some large rock that were enjoying the full moon nailing small fish at the surface and clearing the surface by about two feet. Northern Neck Real Estate so far in 2011 It would be nice to predict property sales with a simple linear regression. It would be easy to do if one could get a handle on the independent variables. Some of these are as follows: · Stock market- when it goes up people get happy and buy. When it goes down people get sad and don’t buy. When if bounces up and down people “might” think –I can’t take looking at the DOW any more and think real estate is the better gamble. This might explain that sales continue to be relatively brisk. · Weather variability- for waterfront homes there is always burst of activity in the spring because people finally decide they want a place to enjoy for the summer. BUT the spring was really crappy weatherwise so the burst in activity did not happen until early summer. · Prices-after sitting on the market for four and five years people finally reduced (because they got tired or died or got a divorce) their prices by 30 to 40 percent and those properties moved and continue to sale. · Washington DC- one grisly old agent told me that I should watch what happens in DC. If home sales increase the same happens in the neck. The home sales for the DC area have been strongest in four years this past August. So if you look at all these factors and can some how quantify each and then predict the weather, stock market, death, divorce and the DC housing market you would be able to accurately predict what is going to happen to the market…..good luck! My gut tells me the following. There will be great deals this fall because people are getting really really tired or dying or divorcing and are dropping the prices. They do not want to sit another year keeping the house sparkling clean. I am seeing the number of really good deals starting to grow as price reductions increase and as a result I expect to see an increase in sales for the remainder of 2011. Then I also see the number of “BE BACKS” continuing to grow. These are the sellers who were just waiting till the market to turn around and then they would “be back” and put the house back on the market. They think the increase in sales means they can sale the property at some inflated prices. I saw a house that might fetch between $375 and $420 come back on the market for just shy of $500k. I talked to the agent and he said that they originally want to put the price at $525 or higher. Ya can’t fix stupid. A house around the corner sold for $344k a few months back!! It will just sit…again. As I have been saying, we will continue to bounce along the bottom with the really good deals being snatched up. In general terms the really good deals are the great homes with deep water going for $500k. Nice homes not in need of too much updating with four plus water depth going in the $400s. Fixer upper but still nice homes with three plus water depth going in the $300s. Cottages in the less than three foot water depth going for between $150k and $200k. If I wanted to buy waterfront here I would be focusing on those properties that have been on the market for two or more years with deeper water and that have been undergoing price reductions in an increased rate in the past year. Last year, the total number of waterfront homes and lots reached just shy of 1,200 (remember that the total number in 2005 was 450). The total number of lots and homes are currently 1,002 with 528 homes and 474 lots. The number of lots have remained the same because they simply are not selling. Things that really irritated/amused me……..this past month Just irritated I always treat each home sale like I was buying the property and, for the record, I only buy great deals. I want a hedge in the event the market drops farther. Then, frankly, there are other agents. In the last update I reported on an agent that listed a house for $2 million and now, a year later, the house is listed by another agent for $750k (which is still high). This same agent just sold another house for $470k that is located on a tidal creek with a controlling depth of six inches and NO view in a community with other houses that are, in a word, rather crappy. Two years ago a larger house, but of the same quality, on a point of land with gorgeous views, in an upscale community BUT also on another tidal creek with no outlet sold for $400k. Thus this agent sold his buyers a house between $75k and $120k higher than the market price. The problem is appraisers will look at this sale and artificially price similar houses are higher levels. The Smell I have always warned people about the smell from the Reedville fish plant. There were, at one time, two fish plants. The smell was really bad and I almost bought a lot next to one and the agent failed to tell me about the plant and, thank goodness, the wind was in the right direction when my wife visited the place. The agent is still in business. There is now only one plant and they have changed their process so the smell is less intense. It is something one will need to experience for your self. I know people who live their and they all say that the smell is less intense will be present for about half hour then the wind shifts. My wife was visiting a property a few weeks back with the wind in the right direction and she said she did not think the smell was that bad. You will need to decide for yourself when you are on the tour with me because I will check the wind direction and let you make your own call. Errors If you have logged onto my website and search property via water depth be careful. Some agents will proclaim a water depth greater than what is actually present. The others will under measure the water depth. Off the top of my head I can think of three properties listed with four feet of water depth when the actual depth was in excess of five feet. One house visited last week reportedly had three bedrooms but there were actually four. The point is to broaden your search as much as possible realizing the agents are not always…how should I say this…NOT accurate. Tides For some reason, the tides have remained uncommonly high. If one tracks the tide charts you will find that throughout the summer the tides seem to be a foot above normal. Southerly winds and storms can explain some of it but not for the entire summer. Maybe global warming is creeping up on us faster than anyone thought possible. I have a dream For several months I have kicking around one idea. I would like to build a super insulated house on a southern exposed lot with five feet of water. The dream part is that I would install solar panels AND wind turbines with sufficient capacity to not only meet the needs of the house but also generate power in sufficient quantities to generate an income from the local utilities. The key is the number of $s that the local utility would pay per KWH. The next is the economics of the power generating equipment. The advances in solar equipment seems to have leveled off but wind power efficiencies seem to increase dramatically. We shall see…here in the neck, if the sun don’t shine the wind does blow. Stay tuned. MY PICs (frankly, given the increase in sales I am suprised these have not gone under contract) Some of the homes that I like are the following: Contemporary home in nice neighborhood with natural wood siding (but painted a tacky color), deeper water, nice setting, around 1800 sq feet. Listed at $399k and should go for low $300ks---PRICED REDUCED TO $375k Large lindal cedar house with lot of land and frontage, very secluded, separate lot with 2 to 3 feet of water for a pier. Views are great BUT not necessarily from the house. Listed at $399 and should go for mid to low $300k (originally listed in the $600s) Brick rambler with fantastic view of the Yeocomico with very protected deep water harbor and separate inlaw apartment with very large garage listed at $565 was listed in the $800s. Price being reduced about $10k every couple of weeks. Divorce sale. Larger brick rambler in one of the nicest neighborhoods near Kilmarnock . Needs little updating but has four bedrooms, nice garage, great views. Listed at $499 should go for mid $400s. Brand new house with very nice views and four feet of water with 1400 sq feet and pier for $325k. Rambler located on a canal in a peaceful setting that might go for around $140. -------------------------------------------------------- If you have a particular kind of property in mind, let me know and I can send you a link with what I consider are either good deals or potential good deals. You can feel free to call me anytime on my cell at 804-580-1162 and I will give the current scoop. Email me atLonRCrow@yahoo.com. My DROID is fully operational so I can get back to you quickly (unless I am driving in Virginia which, according to my wife, subjects you to millions of dollars in fines) You can always log into an account on my website and search properties to your hearts content. www.Loncrow.com AS ALWAY MY ADVICE????—If I wanted to come to the northern neck for a weekend or retirement place and if I knew what the market had to offer, I would start making offers that I FELT COMFORTABLE WITH. Life is short As always, below are links to all the info on property currently on the market (please note that the first few properties in each link are usually anomalies because of the way the data are entered into the system) If something looks good let me know. Note also that the links are good for only 30 days. PLEASE NOTE THESE ARE LARGE FILES SO IT WILL TAKE TIME TO DOWNLOAD NNAR Waterfront homes w/ less than 3 feet of water http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808318&k=P5epY Waterfront homes w/ between 3 and 5 feet of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808319&k=4veIn Waterfront homes w/ more than 5 feet of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808320&k=VUK7iF45 Wateraccess homes http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808359&k=uIriW6iW Waterfront lots w/ 1 TO 4 FEET of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808321&k=zGFeNYQ Waterfront lots w/ OVER 4 FEET of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=319&i=808322&k=7xzx CBRAR Waterfront homes w/ 4 feet or less of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=297&i=1582883&k=CuWBc Waterfront homes w/ more than 4 feet of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=297&i=1582884&k=wgCAeEqf
Waterfront lots w/ 1 TO 4 FEET of water depth
http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=297&i=1582885&k=aWPH3 Waterfront lots w/ OVER 4 FEET of water depth http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=297&i=1582886&k=gfdffdHQ
Lon Crow - Ann Meekins Realtors (R) cell: 804-580-1162; home: 804-529-6335; Efax-703-891-5383
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